U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

18 Sep U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Published by the National Weather Service
Climate Prediction Center

seasonal drought outlook



Latest Seasonal Assessment – During the past 30-days, much of the Four Corners region experienced a continuation of robust monsoon conditions along with beneficial precipitation, while other areas received subnormal precipitation. The Pacific Northwest, most of California, and western and central Nevada remained fairly dry. Other areas of the country which received surplus precipitation included northern Kansas, the southern High Plains, far southern Texas, and much of Georgia and adjacent parts of the Florida Panhandle. Eastern and southern Puerto Rico, and Hawaii continue to dry out. For the upcoming October-November-December (OND) 2014 season, a wet pattern is expected to continue across the Southwest, the southern third of California, the southern Great Plains region, and the eastern Gulf Coast states. This is based on such factors as the CPC 1-month and 3-month precipitation outlooks, various dynamical and statistical models, and the expectation of a weak El Niño which is often characterized by an active subtropical jet stream across the southern tier of the contiguous U.S. However, the Pacific Northwest, and northern and central sections of California and Nevada, and much of western Utah are predicted to have elevated odds of below-median precipitation during the OND period, based in part on the factors noted above. For California, historical composites of weak El Niño’s favor enhanced odds of above-median precipitation across the southern third of the state, with much less support for surplus precipitation farther north. Therefore, improvement or removal of drought is anticipated from southern sections of California and Nevada eastward across the Southwest into the central and southern Great Plains, as well as the eastern Gulf Coast states. Persistence/intensification of drought is favored over the Pacific Northwest, northern and central California, and most of the central Inter-mountain region. Persistence and/or intensification of drought are also favored over Hawaii and Puerto Rico during autumn.

Forecaster: A. Artusa

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: October 16, 2014 at 8:30 AM EDT